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Blocking and Connecting: The Middle East War Changes the Asi
As the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict on international capital markets and transportation channels continue to emerge, the North South international transportation corridor led by Russia is facing the risk of interruption, and Central Asian countries are seeking new southbound sea ports. In the situation where the strategic sea route of Hormuz has been blocked, the strategic value of the east-west "middle corridor" is expected to further increase.
Since the start of the US Israel Iran conflict on February 28th, the North South International Transport Corridor (INSTC) led by Russia has been significantly impacted.
This transportation corridor, proposed by Russia since the Soviet era, has a total length of over 7000 kilometers, connecting the Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and crossing the Caspian Sea region. Connecting Russia with Gulf and Indian Ocean countries such as Iran and India through the Caucasus and Central Asia. After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, due to the restrictions of European and American sanctions, Russian goods could not directly enter the European market, which promoted the rise of this line as a "transportation corridor" that Russia had high hopes for.
The North South International Transport Corridor can replace traditional transportation routes through the Suez Canal, Mediterranean Sea, and Bosphorus Strait, allowing Russian goods to enter Iranian seaports and connect with markets in Pakistan, India, and Southeast Asia. Russia and India can complete cargo transportation within 25 days through the North South Corridor, while traditional routes require nearly 40 days, reducing transportation costs by 30%. Russian President Putin proposed in 2023 to double the freight volume of the corridor by 2025 and triple it by 2030.
The cross Caspian section of the North South International Transport Corridor is the most complex, with three different branch lines: the western line runs around the west coast of the Caspian Sea via roads and railways in Azerbaijan, the central line runs across the Caspian Sea to connect ports in Russia and Iran, and the eastern line runs around the east coast of the Caspian Sea via land routes in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
In November 2025, the eastern route of this transportation corridor will be officially opened to traffic. However, Russian analyst Mikhail Burmistrov believes that the US Israel Iran conflict has had a significant impact on transportation on the Eastern Front, and even if military operations cease in the short term, the cargo volume of the North South International Transport Corridor is likely to decrease by about 25%. If the conflict continues, the consequences could be even more severe.
The US Israel Iraq conflict has also disrupted the construction plan for the western route of the North South International Transport Corridor. Due to the limited throughput capacity of Iran's Caspian Sea ports and other conditions, Russia originally planned to cooperate with Iran and Azerbaijan to build a 160 kilometer "Rasht (Iran) - Astara (Azerbaijan)" railway on the western corridor, connecting the railway networks of Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan to improve transportation efficiency. This project was supposed to start construction in April this year, but after the war began, Russia and Azerbaijan announced that they would reassess the possibility of building a railway along the Caspian Sea coast.
Pavel Fedoyev, the First Vice Chairman of the Transport Committee of the Russian State Duma, said that the turbulent situation in Iran poses certain risks to the north-south international transportation routes. Russia should diversify its freight routes to Asia and focus on developing the transportation directions represented by the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic and through Central Asian countries.
Cross border transportation in Central Asian countries has also been greatly impacted. In recent years, Central Asian countries hope to obtain land access to Türkiye and Europe through Iran's transit, rely on the main ports in the south of Iran, Abbas Port, Chabahar Port, and the north-south international transport corridor to find southbound ports to the sea, rely on the "middle corridor" land channel to assume the important role of Eurasian transportation hub, and enhance their transit transport capacity in cooperation with Iran and other major countries outside the region.
In 2023, Uzbekistan announced plans to build docks and storage facilities at the Shahid Beheshti Port in Chabahar. In 2025, Kazakhstan expressed its intention to build a transportation and logistics terminal at Shahid Rajai Port, a part of Abbas Port. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also attach great importance to transportation cooperation with Iran and are developing channels to Iran's maritime infrastructure through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Kazakhstan expert Peter Swok believes in an interview with health media that the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has a major impact on the security and energy transportation of Central Asian countries. The ongoing conflict may put on hold plans such as the expansion of the Baku Tbilisi Jayhong oil pipeline and the North South international transportation corridor. At present, all railway and road freight transportation in the direction of Iran has come to a standstill.
According to the Uzbekistan newspaper citing internal government sources, Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev instructed the Ministry of Transport to study alternative transportation routes for import and export business. The available options include the Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Georgia Europe route around the Caspian Sea, or the route to China via Kyrgyzstan, or the transportation route through Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The "Middle Corridor", also known as the Trans Caspian International Transport Corridor (TITR), starts from China in the east, passes through Kazakhstan, crosses the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye, and finally extends to European countries. Compared with traditional sea transportation, it can significantly shorten the logistics transportation time between Europe and Asia. The "Middle Corridor" initiative was originally proposed by Türkiye. When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the construction speed and transportation capacity of the "Middle Corridor" rapidly increased after the northern corridor of Russia was blocked.
Türkiye's Anadolu News Agency reported that the east-west "middle corridor" continued to operate, becoming a key link for regional countries to conduct trade exchanges, and its strategic significance in the current tense situation in the Middle East has been enhanced.
Grigory Mikhailov, the editor in chief of the LogiStan portal website in Uzbekistan, said that for Central Asian countries, the majority of trade volume is achieved through the exchange of goods with China. In the event of logistics disruptions in the direction of southern Iran, the importance of the east-west "middle corridor" may become even more prominent.
Kazakhstan, as an important logistics and transportation hub in Central Asia, is vigorously promoting the construction of the Trans Caspian International Transport Corridor. In 2023, the Trans Caspian International Transport Corridor will only operate 11 container trains within Kazakhstan's territory throughout the year, while it will rapidly increase to 359 trains in 2024, with an annual cargo throughput of about 6 million tons. It is predicted that the transportation capacity will reach about 10 million tons by 2030.
Azerbaijan is a key hub in the Caspian Sea, with important facilities such as the Baku International Maritime Trade Port. Georgia is an important transit country for this transportation corridor. Last year, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye jointly formulated a roadmap for the development of the trans Caspian international transport corridor from 2022 to 2027, which will further upgrade relevant infrastructure.
(Editor in charge: He Xin)
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