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The impact of the Middle East situation has spilled over, pu

Japan is highly dependent on energy imports, with over 95% dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Since the outbreak of the US Israel Iran conflict, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate at high levels, leading to a rapid increase in gasoline prices in Japan and gradually spreading to the daily consumption sector. The picture shows a gas station in Tokyo, Japan. Photo by Yue Chenxing, Xinhua News Agency reporter
 
Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict nearly two months ago, the multifaceted impact on the Asian economy has gradually become apparent. Affected by various factors such as rising energy prices, the currencies of some economies have depreciated, and the pressure of imported inflation has increased. The economic growth prospects of more developing economies are also facing the risk of weakening.
 
Increased risk of imported inflation
 
In the "epicenter" of the Middle East, regional aviation hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have been successively affected, causing widespread disruptions to key routes connecting Europe and South Asia in the Middle East. The World Tourism and Travel Council predicted in mid March that the escalation of the conflict would result in a daily loss of approximately $600 million for the Middle East tourism industry. The infrastructure of Gulf countries continues to be attacked, leading international rating agencies to turn their sovereign credit rating outlook for some Gulf countries negative, pushing up overseas borrowing costs and causing a large number of investment projects to be stranded. The Middle East conflict has pressed a "slowdown button" on the Gulf economy and caused significant disruptions to its economic transformation strategy.
 
The Japan Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April fell from 53.0 to 52.4, as the slowdown in the service sector offset the boost from the manufacturing industry. Specifically, due to concerns among businesses that tensions in the Middle East may lead to future supply shortages, the initial manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in April, the highest since January 2022, and the factory output sub index also recorded the largest increase since February 2014. But the initial value of the service industry PMI fell from 53.4 in March to 51.2, with the slowest expansion rate in 11 months.
 
At the same time, the price pressure brought by the Middle East conflict on Japan has intensified, with the largest increase in input costs since January 2023 and the highest increase in average output prices on record; Corporate confidence has weakened for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since August 2020.
 
Justin Heng, Asia Pacific interest rate strategist at HSBC Global Investment Research, said that even if a credible ceasefire agreement is reached between the US and Iran, it will not lead to a rapid recovery of energy supply. This brings risks to Japan's fiscal outlook, and does not rule out the possibility of additional budget, which may lead to another sell-off of ultra long term Japanese treasury bond.
 
In Thailand, affected by the rising import costs of energy and industrial products due to the Middle East situation, the industrial confidence index in March was 88.6, lower than 90.0 in February. The tourism industry in Thailand has also been affected. In March, there were 2.77 million tourists visiting Thailand, a decrease of 15% compared to February. Early indicators in April showed a further deterioration in the momentum of the tourism industry.
 
Thai Finance Minister Ekateri stated on April 22 that the government still has up to 500 billion baht of borrowing space before October this year as a policy ammunition reserve to hedge against economic slowdown, highlighting its determination to actively expand its finances to resist external shocks.
 
In India, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India has stated that the overall impact on India's economic growth and inflation is expected to be highly dependent on the duration of the conflict. As long as inflation expectations remain anchored, temporarily shelving the impact of supply shocks is the optimal policy choice.
 
In South Korea, due to its heavy reliance on energy and key materials such as helium imports from the Middle East, if supply disruptions persist, its semiconductor export growth may be suppressed, and industries such as petrochemicals may come under pressure from the second quarter onwards.
 
The Bank of Korea predicts that economic growth in 2026 will be lower than the February forecast of 2.0%, and inflation may exceed 2.2%; The government has prepared an additional budget of approximately $17 billion (in the form of consumer and energy vouchers), but Morgan Stanley expects to contribute only about 0.15 percentage points of growth.
 
The exchange rate is facing depreciation pressure
 
More than 80% of crude oil exports from the Middle East are sold to the Asia Pacific region, and East and Southeast Asian countries and regions are direct victims of the Middle East conflict. Although many Asia Pacific countries have strengthened their ability to hedge against internationalization risks from past financial crises, there are still many Asia Pacific currencies under pressure against the US dollar. The US dollar has appreciated to varying degrees against the Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, and Vietnamese dong.
 
With the significant rise in international oil prices, the Japanese yen further depreciated, reaching a level of 160.45 yen per US dollar at one point, crossing the 160 mark - a level widely seen by the market as a warning line for the Japanese government's intervention in the foreign exchange market. The depreciation of the Japanese yen will exacerbate Japan's imported inflation pressure, erode the profit margins of Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises and the purchasing power of residents, and thus suppress economic growth from both the supply and demand sides. Market participants are currently cautiously optimistic about the trend of the Japanese yen exchange rate in the second quarter.
 
The Indonesian rupee against the US dollar also fell sharply to a historic low of 17315 rupees per US dollar on April 23, with a daily decline of 0.7%, marking the largest daily decline since September 9, 2025. The rupee continues to be under pressure, mainly due to capital outflows, concerns about fiscal sustainability, issues with capital market transparency, and risk aversion caused by the Middle East conflict. Although the Bank of Indonesia has stated that it will defend its currency, its intervention space is limited by low oil reserves, limited foreign exchange buffers, and larger current account deficits. With inflation risks accumulating and growth remaining strong, the Indonesian central bank has limited room to further relax monetary policy.
 
Since the outbreak of the conflict, the Philippine peso has been a poorly performing Asian currency against the US dollar, depreciating to over 60 pesos per US dollar at one point. The Philippine central bank hopes to prevent the expanding inflation risk by raising interest rates, but it is still not enough to prevent the peso from weakening.
 
Weakening prospects for economic growth
 
In the latest World Economic Outlook report of the International Monetary Fund, the economic growth forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia region this year has been significantly lowered by 2 percentage points to 1.9%. The report released by the World Bank in early April showed that the overall economic growth of Gulf countries will slow down to 1.3% in 2026, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the January forecast. Among them, countries such as Qatar, which relies heavily on natural gas exports, and Kuwait, which heavily relies on the Strait of Hormuz route for imports and exports, are expected to experience negative growth.
 
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also pointed out in its report "Asia Development Outlook 2026 (April Edition)" that due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, the economic growth prospects of developing economies in the Asia Pacific region have weakened, and the growth rate is expected to further slow down.
 
The report states that under the "early stability scenario" of the Middle East conflict, the economic growth rate of developing economies in the Asia Pacific region is expected to slow down from 5.4% in 2025 to 5.1% in 2026 and 2027; If the conflict continues until the third quarter of this year, the economic growth rates of developing economies in the Asia Pacific region will slow down to 4.7% and 4.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
 
The report points out that the prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East may have an impact on regional economic activities in various ways, including pushing up energy prices, disrupting shipping, and exacerbating financial market volatility. Although personal consumption remains resilient and demand for artificial intelligence related goods remains strong, the growth momentum of most developing economies in the Asia Pacific region is weakening. Among them, the growth rate of the Indian economy is expected to slow down from 7.6% in 2025 to 6.9% in 2026; The growth rate of Pacific economies is expected to decrease from 4.2% in 2025 to 3.4% in 2026, and further decline to 3.2% in 2027.
 
The report predicts that under the "early stability scenario", the inflation rate of developing economies in the Asia Pacific region will rise from 3.0% in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026, and then fall back to 3.4% in 2027; If the conflict continues until the third quarter of this year, the inflation rate in 2026 will rise to 5.6%.
 
Some analysts also believe that the surge in demand for electronic products, especially those related to artificial intelligence, overseas should help Asian countries offset the negative impact of the Middle East conflict.
 
As the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve and global uncertainty intensifies, several multilateral development bank presidents, including the Asian Development Bank, held a meeting during the recent Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. They pointed out that the impact of the current global situation has gradually become apparent through rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and tightening financial conditions. Multilateral development banks are always ready to provide timely and effective support to assist countries and clients in risk management, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and protecting vulnerable groups.
 
(Editor in charge: He Xin)

The impact of the Middle East situation has spilled over, pu
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