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According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of March 2026, the unsold area of commercial housing was 786.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. This is the first time in 52 months that the data has achieved a year-on-year decrease. Especially for newly-built commercial housing units that have been for sale for less than 3 years, the year-on-year decrease of 1.8% indicates that the newly formed inventory in the past 3 years is being digested by the market.

 

This year's Government Work Report proposes to "focus on stabilizing the real estate market" and requires "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply". Reducing inventory is an important task in stabilizing the real estate market. At present, China's real estate market has shifted from a shortage of housing supply in the past to a basic balance of total supply and insufficient structural supply, with some areas even experiencing oversupply. For a period of time, cities with oversupply of real estate have experienced sluggish sales and lower prices. To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, various regions have actively reduced supply and introduced relevant policies to stimulate the release of housing consumption demand. Both supply and demand sides are working together to continuously achieve positive results in reducing inventory in the real estate market.

 

The supply side controls the increment. From January to March, the construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, the newly started area of houses decreased by 20.3%, and the completed area of houses decreased by 25.0%, indicating a decline in housing supply. This is a manifestation of various regions actively adapting to changes in the current market situation and proactively "controlling increment".

 

Demand side promotes consumption. From January to March, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 3.1 percentage points compared to January to February. The sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing decreased by 16.7%, narrowing the decline by 3.5 percentage points. The decline in sales area and sales revenue has narrowed. From the market response, since March this year, the real estate markets in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou have increased in popularity, accelerating the digestion of inventory.

 

The main reason for the recent increase in housing transactions is that March and April are already the season of relatively strong housing consumption, and there has been a saying of "golden three and silver four". There is a high demand for buying houses for marriage and children's education; For a long time, there has been a strong wait-and-see attitude in the real estate market. After a period of market downturn, prices have adjusted to a level that many people believe can be sold, and the accumulated demand for a long time has been released; Actively adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in various regions, including optimizing housing provident fund policies, supporting families with multiple children to purchase houses, and supporting the exchange of old houses for new ones, will help promote housing consumption and drive inventory reduction.

 

The trend of second-hand housing recovery is expected to be transmitted to the new housing market. According to statistics from relevant institutions, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 20 key cities increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter. Second hand residential properties in hot cities such as first tier cities have seen an increase in volume and stable prices, resulting in not only an increase in transaction volume but also a stabilization of prices. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of second-hand residential properties in four first tier cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, all saw a month on month increase in March, rising by 0.6%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively. In addition, the prices of second-hand residential properties in cities such as Shenyang, Nanjing, Hefei, Xiamen, Jinan, Haikou, Chongqing, Wuxi, and Xuzhou have increased month on month. The price rebound helps to repair market expectations and enhance confidence in the market from all parties. The improvement of the second-hand housing market in some cities can help to open up the market replacement chain, "sell old and buy new" or promote market sentiment towards the new housing market.

 

The supply side not only needs to "control increment" according to market conditions, but also "optimize supply". Currently, the construction of "good houses" is actively being promoted. Good houses "are an important manifestation of" excellent supply "." Good houses "will better meet people's aspirations for a better living life, stimulate demand for improvement, and drive housing consumption.

 

Overall, since the beginning of this year, the real estate markets in some cities have rebounded, with expectations improving and the real estate market stabilizing. The macroeconomic situation improved in the first quarter, which is conducive to the growth of residents' income and the improvement of employment situation. These positive factors at the macro level also contribute to the stabilization of the real estate market. (Source: Economic Daily Author: Kang Shu)

 

 

 

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