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Opinion

China's economy holds its ground on stability

China's economy maintained a steady footing in the first four months of the year, with stable growth in production and supply, continued expansion in market sales, generally stable employment and prices, and growing new drivers of high-quality development, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. By rolling out more proactive and effective macro policies, China has been able to stabilize employment, enterprise operations, markets, and expectations, ensuring steady progress across the board.

China is capable of responding to risks and challenges. In the first four months, the value-added output of major industrial enterprises increased by 5.6 percent year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.9 percent. Total goods imports and exports grew by 14.9 percent, and retail sales of services increased by 5.6 percent. At the end of April, foreign exchange reserves stood at over 3.4 trillion US dollars. The surveyed urban unemployment rate remained stable, energy supplies increased steadily, and basic public welfare and security development were well ensured. On the whole, China has a rich macroeconomic policy toolkit and ample room for both cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments. The precision and effectiveness of policy implementation have been steadily improving, giving the country the capability and confidence to address risks and challenges.

China’s high-quality development advances toward new frontiers. In the first four months, the value-added output of major high-tech manufacturers grew by 12.6 percent year-on-year, while that of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector increased by 14 percent. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, its spillover effects on industries have strengthened. During the same period, output of robot reducers and industrial robots surged by 73.3 percent and 25.7 percent, respectively. New drivers and strengths are taking shape, creating room and gathering steam for high-quality development.

Foundation for price stability remains solid. In the first four months, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) turned from a 0.6 percent year-on-year decline in the first quarter to a 0.2 percent increase, marking the first positive cumulative growth since 2023. In April alone, the PPI rose 2.8 percent year-on-year, accelerating by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, and increased 1.7 percent month-on-month, with the monthly growth rate widening by 0.7 percentage points, marking the seventh consecutive month of sequential gains. With abundant goods and services, solid basic energy security, stable supply chains, smooth logistics, and effective measures to keep key goods and energy prices steady, the foundation for price stability remains unchanged.

Policy

1. China on May 18 issued a notice to further optimize departure tax refund measures and expand inbound consumption, outlining eight specific measures including wider coverage of tax refund stores, a random inspection system for small-value tax refund applications, and improved "instant tax refund upon purchase" services.

2. The National Financial Regulatory Administration recently issued a notice calling for full use of the financing coordination mechanism supporting small and micro businesses (SMBs) in 2026, to guide financial institutions in stepping up support for the development of SMBs as well as private businesses. The notice said efforts should be made to promote a stable credit supply, an optimized structure, improved quality and sustainability in financial services for small businesses, while enhancing financial support for private enterprises, helping sustain stable economic growth, and stimulating momentum for high-quality development.

Data

1. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first quarter, China's digital industry generated a revenue of RMB 9.5 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 12.9 percent, with the growth rate rising by 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

2. The latest data from the National Financial Regulatory Administration shows that by the end of the first quarter, the balance of inclusive small and micro-enterprise loans held by banking financial institutions in China reached RMB 38.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.9 percent; and the balance of inclusive agricultural loans stood at RMB 15 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5 percent.

3. On May 17, a 400,000-ton very large ore carrier achieved normalized fully-loaded berthing at the Caofeidian Port Area of Tangshan Port, making Tangshan Port the first world-class deep-water port in Bohai Bay capable of handling fully-loaded 400,000-ton vessels.

4. According to the National Data Bureau, China is accelerating the construction of a national integrated computing power network monitoring and distribution platform. Currently, the platform has included approximately 70 percent of the country's intelligent computing power within its monitoring coverage, enabling it to provide different users with services such as computing, storage, and network connectivity solutions.

5. The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that to date, China has built and renovated over 3,100 comprehensive county-level commercial service centers and approximately 15,000 township-level commercial centers, continuously improving the county-level commercial system.

6. According to Shanghai Customs statistics, in the first four months of 2026, the total import and export value of the Yangtze River Delta region reached RMB 6.14 trillion, hitting a record high for the same period and a year-on-year increase of 15.9 percent, accounting for 37.8 percent of the country's total import and export value.

7. According to the National Railway Administration, in the first four months of this year, the national railway completed a total freight volume of 1.727 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percent; and completed a freight turnover of 1,227.427 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 5.4 percent.

8. According to the National Cultural Heritage Administration, by the end of 2025, there were 7,188 registered museums nationwide, with a free admission rate exceeding 91 percent. In 2025, museums held 45,000 exhibitions and 583,000 educational activities, receiving 1.56 billion visitors.

9. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on May 18 shows that China's national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend from January to April. The value-added output of major industrial enterprises grew by 5.6% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 16,494.1 billion, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year.

10. Invoice data from the State Taxation Administration shows that in the first four months of this year, sales revenue of enterprises nationwide maintained steady growth. Industrial sales revenue increased by 6.6 percent year-on-year, with manufacturing and mining sales revenue growing by 6.9 percent and 6.4 percent year-on-year, respectively, both maintaining rapid growth.

(Source: Economic Daily)